Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Democrats Dodge a Bullet in Latest Budget Deal


The democrats have almost run the table when it comes to this budget plan that was voted out today by congress.  It’s a major victory for our side.  We dodged several bullets.  There will be no twenty percent cut in disability Social Security payments come next September.  In fact this budget funds the next debt ceiling through March of 2017 and seems to fund everything till then.  The issue won’t be used as a political football next year.  There will be no scheduled Medicare Part B premium hikes next year.  The government will be selling oil reserves. The Republicans wanted that part.  If you are suspected of fraud on Social Security payments it will be harder to defend your case in court and get back your impounded payments.  Doctors will get a two percent cut in payments on Medicare.  But overall it’s a major victor and John Boehner handed this victory to the democrats simply by allowing them to even VOTE on this provision because the democrats would be passing a lot of house bills if they were ever submitted to a vote.  Meanwhile Shawn Hannity is not quite sure that Mc Carthy is far right enough.  But the right wing must be fit to be tied knowing John Boehner’s parting “gift” to them being this major spending bill which was voted out today.  Again- - the democrats dodged a bullet today.

You know Dr Ben Carson has been rising in the polls.  Now he’s not only ahead of Trump in Iowa he’s ahead of Trump nationwide and Trump’s numbers have actually fallen in a major way.  To have Ben Carson as President would be frightening.  I think he’s some kind of a sociopath.  Of course they all want to increase the military and invade four or five Mideast nations at once, and also cut federal taxes in a draconian way- - not just around the edges.  But they also want to bring the deficit to zero- - immediately.  Dr Ben Carson has pledged that he will not sign any federal budget that isn’t a balanced budget and of course Shawn Hannity agreed with him.  Can you imagine the draconian cuts that would have to be made in the social safety net for this to occur.  We’d see what are disparagingly knows as “entitlement programs” as we know it decimated.  Literally tens of millions of people could be thrown into poverty overnight.  He has referred to the Affordable Care Act as “as bad as slavery”.  I’ve wondered why people have taken to calling him “Mister Stabby”.  That’s because he almost stabbed someone at age fourteen but got his belt buckle instead, all over some argument.  Carson admits to coming after people with “rocks, hammers, and baseball bats”.  But according to Shawn Hannity his mother sat him down and took away his TV and radio privileges and Ben knuckled down and studied hard and became the brilliant surgeon he is today.  I can’t figure out why the chant a year ago was “Run, Ben, Run”.  Who is this “they” who wants this mentally unstable blithering idiot as President?  Yes, he’s more dangerous than Trump.  But what will happen at the debate tomorrow night?  Will he bolster his poll numbers, or he could just slip on a banana peel.

I had previously concluded that the Shawn Hannity show wasn’t worth listening too and now my belief in that is bolstered because nothing but lies spewed out of Hannity’s mouth today.  They’re never ending.  Hannity has said that the Clinton surpluses ended with the last year Newt Gingrich was in power.  That’s not true.  Gingrich was kicked out of the chairmanship in January of 1999 because “He made everything into a crisis”.  He was rejected by his own party.  But it was in the fall of 2000 that Al Gore campaigned on a lock box fur the newfound surplus.  The republicans argued that ‘This is money the government stole from the people and they need to give it back”.  So much for facts.  Hannity also told the lie that the lowest Obama deficit is still higher than any President Bush deficit.  The truth is that the final year of the Bush deficit was just as high as Obama, and that the deficit since then has been reduced by a trillion dollars and stands now at 430 Billion or something, and they’re no reason why next year’s can’t continue to be reduced further.  Hannity also said that the national debt was 19 going on 20 trillion.  Last year about this time Hannity was saying it was 17 trillion.  We didn’t run up a two or three trillion dollar deficit in one year.  Someone is lying.  There is the FOX news lie called the “Ferguson effect” where police do work slowdowns because now that we are racially conscious and have all these body cameras police are “afraid to do their job” and the crime rate has gone up in a major way in the past year.  I am informed this is a bold faced lie.  FOX news of course lies about global warming and in fact her a guest who said that a new ice age is coming.  They also cling to the story that the warmest earth year was eighteen years ago.  The truth is the earth is getting hotter all tie time and the polar ice sheet is breaking up, like defective concrete and when the whole thing goes there will be hell to pay.  This upcoming election is really a make or break one for the democrats because the Supreme Court hangs in the balance.  If the republicans get control of the executive and elect more than forty or so right wing nut jobs in congress we are all done for.  Already these forty or fifty people largely control what congress votes out.

Persistently low oil prices are putting a lot of pressure on the dividend policies of oil and gas producers. The Wall Street Journal reported that four oil majors – BP, Royal Dutch Shell, ExxonMobil, and Chevron – have a combined cash flow deficit of $20 billion for the first half of 2015. In other words, these big players are not earning enough revenues to cover expenditures, share buybacks, and dividends. With such a large cash flow deficit, something has to give. All four are focusing on slashing spending in order to preserve their promises to shareholders, with dividends especially seen as untouchable.  However, it could take several years to bring spending into alignment so that cash flows breakeven. The problem for these companies is that they were also cash flow negative even when oil prices were above $100 per barrel in the years preceding the bust in 2014. Over the past decade, costs at all of these companies have all been heading in the wrong direction – higher spending on new projects, dividend payouts, and share buybacks have all driven costs dramatically higher. The WSJ notes that Chevron’s dividend bill doubled since 2004, for example, and its capital spending increased by six fold. Higher oil prices over that timeframe allowed for this cost inflation, but the oil majors were still cash flow negative. Now that oil prices have crashed, the deficit has ballooned, forcing painful cuts to payroll and spending for new oil projects.
We had tomato soup for lunch followed by a patty melt with fried onions on it, improving it.  We had wedge cut potatoes and watermelon for dessert.  I’ll save the Shawn Hannity remarks for later.  On the soap opera they had surprise batchelor and batchelorette parties.  Aden got drunk guzzling up a storm and then rambling.  First Bo and Patch have a strong gas leak to contend with when they were loostening some pipes.  They were fixing that and they discovered part of the walls were crumbly and could be gotten through.  There was talk about a secret passageway out.  I did not see all the episode because I was shaving part of the time and out looking for cigarettes.  Richard told me they had already called A through M to line up for money draw.  In a later scene Bo and Patch are ready to board an airplane and the pilot has been mugged or something.  They called “all residents” just before a quarter till two.  At five till two I left off watching DL and went down to get in line.  However I was surprised that the office was locked.  First it was just the screen that was locked and then the door was closed.  David and others came by wanting to get paid.  Glen hadn’t gotten paid yet.  Larry gave me a cigarette.  A bit later on Mario gave me a long short and I was talking on the west benches with Glen and we both went down the hall.  Manuel was in the office talking to Jennifer.  When Manuel was done Jennifer told me to come around the regular way.  There were two ahead of me in line.  Jennifer agreed I had $9.65 or something even deducting the haircut.  I hadn’t brought the Humanna letter this time.  But Jennifer says she received a bill or two she hadn’t opened yet and would not be paying me this week.  I was bummed.  I turned on the Norman Goldman show and he stressed that democrats are on the two yard line just ready to punch the ball in for a score.  He says “Democrats have never been more unified as a party”.


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